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Past CMEs From 2021:

CME: 2021-12-24T17:09:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-27T08:35Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Faintly visible as a partial halo SSW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. May possibly be associated with a filament eruption visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-12-24T10:30Z, with rising field lines faintly visible in SDO AIA 171 around the same time, and coronal change across the data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 between 2021-12-23T21:15Z and 2021-12-24T10:55Z. | Arrival analysis details from Lan Jian: "Because the mag field rotations and enhanced magnetic field lasted a long time, from late Dec 27 to about Dec 28 16:00, I think there is a CME encounter starting with a shock at 8:35 on Dec 27. The aforementioned field rotation region corresponds to the magnetic obstacle. The CME is overlapping with a stream interaction region (consistent with the ENLIL solar wind run at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction). I would consider this as a CME+SIR hybrid/merged structure."

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-28T07:06Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	22.52	----	2021-12-25T21:52Z	34.72	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-28T01:04Z (-6.5h, +6.9h)	16.48	95.0	2021-12-26T05:20Z	27.25	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-28T04:05Z	19.50	95.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-12-21T20:23:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible in SW of STEREO A COR2, later as a partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with significant eruption/opening field lines with associated dimming/EUV wave observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2021-12-21T19:00Z. A filament feature is also observed in SDO AIA 304. | Update: "There is no clear CME signature on Dec 24-25. During the short-duration mag field rotations, the field is not much increased or quiet." - Lan Jian

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-25T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	30.0	2021-12-22T12:00Z	80.00	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-25T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-12-22T14:50Z	79.17	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-25T21:00Z	----	30.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-12-20T12:36:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is associated with an M1.8 from AR12908 (S20W00). It is visible in the south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the west of STEROE A COR. This CME has a dimpled front. The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruption arcades. | Update: "There is no clear CME signature on Dec 24-25. During the short-duration mag field rotations, the field is not much increased or quiet." - Lan Jian

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-23T10:57Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-12-20T20:55Z	62.03	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Mary Aronne (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-23T09:54Z	----	----	2021-12-20T21:00Z	60.90	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-12-23T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-12-20T21:28Z	72.53	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-23T16:28Z (-7.0h, +5.0h)	----	79.0	2021-12-21T02:30Z	61.97	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-23T18:23Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-12-21T07:00Z	59.38	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-12-23T12:15Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-12-21T07:00Z	53.25	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-12-24T12:30Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)	----	75.0	2021-12-21T13:03Z	71.45	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-23T22:32Z (-9.5h, +13.4h)	----	100.0	2021-12-21T13:10Z	57.37	----	DBM	Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs)	Detail
2021-12-23T15:46Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-12-22T01:42Z	38.07	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-23T23:00Z	----	70.0	2021-12-22T07:00Z	40.00	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)	Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC)	Detail
2021-12-23T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	----	60.0	2021-12-22T16:57Z	25.05	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-12-23T18:42Z	----	76.8	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.125 - 4.375	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-12-20T05:48:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is visible in the east of SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. STEREO A COR2 data is not available. It is associated with a C4.4 flare from AR 12909 (S19E11) which peaked at 2021-12-20T03:21Z. This was followed by an eruption with dimming, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193 and 171 beginning at 2021-12-20T03:15Z. The material is also seen leaving the disk in SDO AIA 304. The source signature is seen as opening field lines in SDO AIA 171. | Update: "There is no clear CME signature on Dec 24-25. During the short-duration mag field rotations, the field is not much increased or quiet." - Lan Jian

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-23T10:57Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-12-20T20:55Z	62.03	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Mary Aronne (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-23T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-12-20T21:28Z	67.53	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-23T15:46Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-12-22T01:42Z	38.07	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-23T14:34Z	----	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.33333	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-12-18T18:12:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is associated with a C6.3 flare peaking at 2021-12-18T18:01Z from around S19E89. This is accompanied by an eruption on the east limb. It is seen with moving/opening field lines, and post eruption arcades in SDO AIA 193/171. The material can also be seen erupting off the east limb in SDO AIA 304. UPDATE (2021-12-24T17:14Z): There may possibly be the weak signature of a flux rope buried in the L1 solar wind data around 2021-12-21T14:05Z, following the arrival of the 2021-12-19 high speed stream, but there is no solar wind density, speed, or temperature data to conclusively support an arrival.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-21T13:43Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	----	20.0	2021-12-19T13:43Z	48.00	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-21T13:43Z	----	20.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-12-15T05:00:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-19T18:28Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption near AR 12907 (near S25E45) which exhibits dimming and a small EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2021-12-15T01:30Z. Northward deflection of source is apparent in SDO's field-of-view. UPDATE (2021-12-24T18:17Z): Field component rotation indicating a potential flux rope buried in the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival signature, from 2021-12-19T18:28Z to 2021-12-19T20:35Z, may possibly be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2021-12-14T17:38Z and 2021-12-15T05:00Z. The overall solar wind signatures for density, speed, and temperature are dominated by the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival, with only small changes that might support the field signature.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-18T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-33.47	----	2021-12-15T20:23Z	94.08	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-18T01:47Z (-4.1h, +4.7h)	-40.68	16.0	2021-12-16T03:16Z	87.20	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-18T05:23Z	-37.08	16.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-19T18:28Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME event is associated with a filament eruption from center of the Earth-facing disk as seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2021-12-14T11:14Z. The filament is estimated to be about 30 degrees wide; centered near N27W08. UPDATE (2021-12-24T18:15Z): Field component rotation indicating a potential flux rope buried in the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival signature, from 2021-12-19T18:28Z to 2021-12-19T20:35Z, may possibly be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2021-12-14T17:38Z and 2021-12-15T05:00Z. The overall solar wind signatures for density, speed, and temperature are dominated by the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival, with only small changes that might support the field signature.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-18T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-24.47	----	2021-12-15T20:05Z	94.38	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-18T18:00Z	-24.47	----	---	---	----	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-12-06T05:48:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-10T13:27Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: Partial halo visible in the S in SOHO LASCO/C2; no STEREO A imagery available. Associated with a slow filament eruption centered near S50W10, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-12-06T01:00Z. Slow eruption that takes quite a long time between the eruption in SDO FOV and the CME appearing in the C2 FOV. Weak combined arrival signature with the CME with ID 2021-12-05T14:36:00-CME-001. Gradual increase in B_total, peaking at 9.95nT at 2021-12-11T03:27Z, increases also seen in density, temperature, and briefly in the solar wind speed (peaking at 337km/s).

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-11T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	25.55	----	2021-12-06T13:05Z	96.37	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-10T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-4.45	40.0	2021-12-07T07:15Z	78.20	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-11T00:00Z	10.55	40.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-12-05T14:36:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-10T13:27Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: Partial halo S in SOHO LASCO C2; during STEREO A data gap. Associated with a filament eruption centered near S45W10 (filament extending from E20 to W40), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-12-05T11:30Z. Weak combined arrival signature with the CME with ID 2021-12-06T05:48:00-CME-001. Gradual increase in B_total, peaking at 9.95nT at 2021-12-11T03:27Z, increases also seen in density, temperature, and briefly in the solar wind speed (peaking at 337km/s).

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-09T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-14.45	----	2021-12-05T16:33Z	116.90	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-09T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-19.45	60.0	2021-12-06T01:00Z	108.45	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-12-09T20:30Z	-16.95	60.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-11-29T10:38:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-04T11:51Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption centered around S25E10. The filament eruption is visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-11-29T08:00Z. It is also visible as dimming in SDO AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sudden but weak Bx-By field component rotation accompanied by weak pileup. Followed by field component rotation indicating a flux rope, beginning 2021-12-04T20:12Z. From Teresa: there are signatures of ICME starting at 12 UT of Dec 4 and flux rope signatures right at 20 UT.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-12-02T10:55Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-48.93	----	2021-11-29T15:11Z	116.67	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-02T05:52Z	-53.98	----	2021-11-29T19:12Z	112.65	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-12-02T08:24Z (-4.57h, +5.73h)	-51.45	100.0	2021-11-29T20:21Z	111.50	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-12-02T20:00Z	-39.85	----	2021-11-30T03:48Z	104.05	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-12-02T08:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)	-51.85	60.0	2021-11-30T07:15Z	100.60	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-12-02T12:24Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-47.45	----	2021-11-30T08:00Z	99.85	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-12-02T09:11Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-50.67	----	2021-11-30T08:00Z	99.85	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-12-02T10:40Z	-49.18	80.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.8	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-11-26T01:25:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Faint CME visible in the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3; likely leaves the FOV during STEREO A data gap. Associated with a filament eruption in the vicinity of the unnumbered active region near N20E40, visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-11-25T23:45Z (during STEREO A data gap). Partially overlaps with an earlier halo CME in C2. May possibly have some deflection from the source location. There is possibly a very weak magnetic shock at 2021-11-29T08:37Z, but it's not really supported well by the solar wind data, so an arrival is not supported.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-11-29T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-11-26T16:37Z	66.38	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-29T06:14Z (-2.3h, +2.3h)	----	4.0	2021-11-26T18:46Z	59.47	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-29T08:37Z	----	4.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-11-24T14:09:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-27T21:50Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and in the S in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with an eruption near S30E20. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and EUVIA 195/304 beginning 2021-11-24T13:00Z. CME arrival marked by a sudden increase in B total, which reached 17 nT. Density and temperature also increased during the shock and pileup. The solar wind increased from 300 km/s to 380 km/s during the shock.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-11-27T13:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-8.43	----	2021-11-24T17:09Z	76.68	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-27T23:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	1.17	60.0	2021-11-24T23:50Z	70.00	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-11-27T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-3.83	----	2021-11-25T02:00Z	67.83	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-27T13:25Z (-8.4h, +8.8h)	-8.42	100.0	2021-11-25T02:32Z	67.30	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-27T10:52Z	-10.97	----	2021-11-25T10:00Z	59.83	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-11-28T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	3.17	70.0	2021-11-25T11:12Z	58.63	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-27T19:02Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-2.80	----	2021-11-25T12:00Z	57.83	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-11-27T13:37Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-8.22	----	2021-11-25T12:00Z	57.83	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-11-27T17:02Z	-4.80	76.6667	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.2 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-11-23T10:36:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2, faintly visible in S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. May be associated with dimming in the far south of disk center as seen in SDO AIA 193 around 2021-11-23T10:04Z. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195. Possible northward deflection due to source proximity to south polar coronal hole. From Lan: I think there is a CME encounter at DSCOVR and ACE, led by the shock at about 21:50 on Nov 27 [the arrival of the 2021-11-24 CME]. There are somewhat mag field rotations and low temperature from 10:30 on Nov 27 to the end of that day. The two earlier increases on Nov 27 you mentioned are not shocks and do not seem to signal a CME arrival.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-11-28T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-11-24T13:50Z	88.17	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-28T06:00Z	----	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T19:23Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: This CME is associated with a long-duration M1.6 flare from AR 12891 and a corresponding eruption signature can be seen in the available SDO AIA imagery toward the center of the Earth-facing disk as early as 2021-11-01T23:37Z. The shock was most probably caused by the combined arrival of this CME and the 2021-11-01T18:38Z CME and exhibited a dramatic increase in B_tot first to 14 nT at 2021-11-03T19:55Z and then to the maximum of 24 nT at 21:07Z, with corresponding increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (to speeds around 700 km/s, with a maximum of 809 km/s). There is a clear flux rope, accompanied by a drop in temperature the next morning. There was an associated magnetopause crossing and a strong geomagnetic storm, with 5 synoptic periods of Kp above 6 (three of them with Kp=7).

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-11-03T21:41Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	2.30	----	2021-11-02T12:00Z	31.38	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-11-04T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	26.62	95.0	2021-11-02T12:04Z	31.32	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0	Other (SIDC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-04T15:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	19.62	----	2021-11-02T12:30Z	30.88	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-11-03T20:00Z	0.62	----	2021-11-02T14:00Z	29.38	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-03T16:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-2.58	----	2021-11-02T15:27Z	27.93	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-03T21:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	2.27	----	2021-11-02T17:44Z	25.65	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-04T00:00Z	4.62	80.0	2021-11-02T17:45Z	25.63	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-11-03T18:00Z	-1.38	70.0	2021-11-03T01:09Z	18.23	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)	Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC)	Detail
2021-11-04T09:00Z	13.62	----	2021-11-03T03:00Z	16.38	Dst min. in nT: -170 Dst min. time: 2021-11-04T15:00Z	Anemomilos	WKent Tobiska (SET SWD)	Detail
2021-11-04T05:00Z	9.62	----	2021-11-03T04:00Z	15.38	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-11-04T09:50Z (-6.6h, +6.7h)	14.45	100.0	2021-11-03T06:45Z	12.63	----	DBM	Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs)	Detail
2021-11-04T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	20.62	95.0	2021-11-03T13:27Z	5.93	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0	Other (SIDC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-03T17:42Z (-9.3h, +16.5h)	-1.68	100.0	2021-11-03T19:38Z	-0.25	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-03T17:31Z (-9.4h, +7.0h)	-1.87	100.0	2021-11-03T21:05Z	-1.70	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-04T09:53Z	14.50	----	2021-11-03T22:44Z	-3.35	----	CAT-PUMA	Jiajia Liu (QUB)	Detail
2021-11-04T03:01Z	7.63	----	2021-11-04T01:53Z	-6.50	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-11-04T01:16Z	5.88	----	2021-11-04T01:55Z	-6.53	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-11-04T03:18Z	7.92	91.4286	---	---	Max Kp Range: 4.66667 - 6.77778	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T19:23Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: This CME is seen to the southwest in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. The source of this CME appears to be a C1.3 class flare from Active Region 12887 (S28W58) and an accompanying eruption seen in AIA 193 and 171. The shock caused most probably by the combined arrival of this CME and the 2021-11-02T02:48Z CME is characterized by the dramatic increase in B_tot, first to 14 nT at 2021-11-03T19:55Z and then to the maximum of 24 nT at 21:07Z, with corresponding increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (to speeds around 700 km/s, with a maximum of 809 km/s). There is a clear flux rope, accompanied by a drop in ion temperature the next morning. The arrival of this combined CME front was marked by an associated magnetopause crossing and a strong geomagnetic storm, with 5 synoptic periods of Kp above 6 (three of them with Kp=7).

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-11-03T16:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-2.58	----	2021-11-02T15:27Z	27.93	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-03T21:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	2.27	----	2021-11-02T17:44Z	25.65	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-03T17:31Z (-9.4h, +7.0h)	-1.87	100.0	2021-11-03T21:05Z	-1.70	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-03T18:39Z	-0.73	100.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 4.66667 - 6.66667	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-11-01T02:00:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Associated with the M1.5 class flare from AR 2887 peaking at 2021-11-01T01:45Z and an eruption with dimming, post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 starting 2021-11-01T01:12Z, as well as an EUV wave. The arrival of this CME could not be clearly identified within the available solar wind data at L1. The event may have been overtaken/combined with faster Earth-directed CMEs observed later on 2021-11-01 and on 2021-11-02.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-11-04T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	----	70.0	2021-11-01T12:51Z	61.15	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-04T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-11-01T22:52Z	51.13	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-11-04T02:00Z	----	70.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-31T09:13Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Significant CME SW in COR2A and full halo in C2/C3. Source: X1.0 class flare from AR 2887 at S26W4 peaking at 2021-10-28T15:35Z and an associated significant eruption (with a EUV wave) seen in AIA 193/171/304 and EUVI A 195/304 starting 2021-10-28T15:25Z. CME arrival marked by sudden increase in magnetic field and solar wind speed and density, with B total briefly reaching 13 nT. The flux rope is clearly seen on the next day.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-10-30T17:15Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-15.97	----	2021-10-28T19:13Z	62.00	Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-30T20:20Z	-12.88	----	2021-10-28T21:00Z	60.22	Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 7.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-10-30T05:00Z	-28.22	----	2021-10-29T02:00Z	55.22	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-10-31T11:28Z	2.25	----	2021-10-29T02:31Z	54.70	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-10-31T07:58Z	-1.25	----	2021-10-29T02:36Z	54.62	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-10-30T14:00Z	-19.22	----	2021-10-29T04:00Z	53.22	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-30T16:00Z	-17.22	----	2021-10-29T04:16Z	52.95	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-10-30T18:55Z (-5.9h, +12.2h)	-14.30	100.0	2021-10-29T05:54Z	51.32	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-31T14:56Z	5.72	----	2021-10-29T08:07Z	49.10	----	CAT-PUMA	Jiajia Liu (QUB)	Detail
2021-10-31T05:00Z	-4.22	70.0	2021-10-29T08:23Z	48.83	Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0	Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)	Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC)	Detail
2021-10-31T03:07Z (-7.7h, +7.6h)	-6.10	100.0	2021-10-29T08:41Z	48.53	----	DBM	Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs)	Detail
2021-10-30T12:26Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-20.78	----	2021-10-29T09:00Z	48.22	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-31T04:51Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-4.37	----	2021-10-29T09:00Z	48.22	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-30T16:54Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-16.32	----	2021-10-29T12:07Z	45.10	Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-30T19:40Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-13.55	90.0	2021-10-29T16:03Z	41.17	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0	Other (SIDC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-30T22:07Z	-11.10	90.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 5.42857 - 7.71429	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-10-25T05:36:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption and B3.7 flare from AR 12887 (near S28E38) taking place around 2021-10-25T03:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/304 and in STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME is faintly visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a faint halo in a few frames of STEREO A COR2 difference imagery.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-10-29T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-10-25T17:12Z	80.80	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-28T17:41Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	----	2.0	2021-10-26T01:48Z	63.88	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-29T02:53Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-10-26T12:00Z	62.88	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-28T09:58Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-10-26T12:00Z	45.97	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-29T13:12Z	----	----	2021-10-28T02:52Z	34.33	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-10-28T07:38Z	----	0.0	2021-10-28T02:55Z	4.72	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-10-28T20:53Z	----	1.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-10-17T09:36:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint halo in SOHO LASCO/C2, more clearly visible in the W in STEREO A COR2. May be associated with a filament eruption faintly visible near N30W10 in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2021-10-17T07:39Z. | There was no clear arrival signature from this CME.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-10-20T15:58Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-10-17T12:00Z	75.97	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-20T09:43Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-10-17T12:30Z	69.22	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-20T04:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-10-17T13:49Z	62.47	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-20T06:37Z	----	----	2021-10-17T16:00Z	62.62	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-10-20T04:34Z (-6.1h, +5.9h)	----	75.0	2021-10-17T22:08Z	54.43	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-21T00:19Z	----	----	2021-10-18T05:49Z	66.50	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-10-20T06:32Z	----	----	2021-10-18T05:51Z	48.68	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-10-20T23:00Z	----	10.0	2021-10-19T22:45Z	24.25	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-10-20T11:52Z	----	42.5	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.25	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-16T00:09Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: Very faint partial halo W in C2,C3 (front not seen in COR2A b/c of a large overlapping data gap from 2021-10-11T19:23Z to 2021-10-12T09:23Z). Source: eruption from AR 2882 at N16W30 seen in AIA 193/304 starting after 2021-10-12T02:03Z and associated with multiple higher B-class flares from this active region and an EUV wave seen in AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sharp increase in B_total, reaching 9.76 nT at 2021-10-16T01:40Z, accompanied by pileup and speed increase, in addition to field component rotation indicating potential flux rope and momentary temperature rise indicating potential CME arrival. Kp increased to 3 during the 2021-10-16T00:00Z-03:00Z synoptic period in response but decreased afterward. Field remained amplified for two days following arrival, indicating a complex L1 solar wind signature that included both a far-flank flux rope interaction and a subsequent high-speed stream arrival.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-10-15T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-12.15	----	2021-10-12T21:15Z	74.90	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Mary Aronne (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-15T02:06Z	-22.05	----	2021-10-12T22:30Z	73.65	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-10-15T13:12Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-10.95	----	2021-10-13T12:00Z	60.15	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-15T04:32Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-19.62	----	2021-10-13T12:15Z	59.90	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-16T18:00Z	17.85	30.0	2021-10-14T01:51Z	46.30	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-10-15T16:43Z (-0.5h, +0.5h)	-7.43	8.0	2021-10-14T12:45Z	35.40	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Mary Aronne (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-15T15:05Z	-9.07	19.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.25 - 3.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-10-09T07:09:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-12T01:46Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: The CME is a full asymmetrical halo in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. The associated eruption followed the M1.6 class flare from AR 2882 and was characterized by significant dimming, an EUV wave and post-eruptive arcades seen starting after 2021-10-09T06:33Z mostly to the West from AR 2882 in SDO AIA 193, 304, 171 and in EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-10-09T06:33Z. The CME arrival (a clear shock) is characterized by a sudden simultaneous jump of magnetic field (Bz to almost -14 nT), solar wind speed to 450 km/s from 350 km/s and ion density to above 25 cm^-3. Bz was intermittently in the negative for a few hours and B total reached the maximum of 16 nT.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-10-12T01:00Z	-0.77	75.0	2021-10-09T10:33Z	63.22	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-11T11:00Z	-14.77	----	2021-10-09T11:28Z	62.30	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-11T09:38Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-16.13	----	2021-10-09T15:00Z	58.77	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-11T22:41Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-3.08	----	2021-10-09T15:00Z	58.77	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-11T07:50Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-17.93	----	2021-10-09T15:07Z	58.65	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-11T12:00Z	-13.77	----	2021-10-09T15:30Z	58.27	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-10-11T19:22Z	-6.40	----	2021-10-09T16:10Z	57.60	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-10-11T10:23Z (-4.0h, +4.0h)	-15.38	100.0	2021-10-09T20:30Z	53.27	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-11T17:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	-8.77	100.0	2021-10-10T00:30Z	49.27	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-10-11T02:00Z	-23.77	----	2021-10-11T01:00Z	24.77	Dst min. in nT: -95 Dst min. time: 2021-10-11T16:00Z	Anemomilos	WKent Tobiska (SET SWD)	Detail
2021-10-12T18:37Z	16.85	----	2021-10-12T09:03Z	-7.28	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-10-11T16:19Z	-9.45	91.6667	---	---	Max Kp Range: 4.33333 - 6.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-10-06T17:38:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is likely associated with an eruption visible on the Earth-facing disk from an unnumbered active region near S20W10 as seen in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2021-10-06T15:49Z. The eruption signature exhibits a notable dimming and some subsequent field line movement.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-10-11T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-10-07T14:07Z	87.88	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-10T15:22Z (-0.0h, +0.0h)	----	3.0	2021-10-07T19:59Z	67.38	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-10T22:41Z	----	3.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-30T14:15Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: CME source was an eruption from AR2871 around 2021-09-28T05:36Z. This eruption was associated with a C1.6 flare that started at 2021-09-28T05:54Z and peaked at 2021-09-28T06:34Z. From Lan Jian: there is a nice ICME on Oct 1-2. The flux rope part starts at about 12:44 on Oct 1 and sends at about 12:44 on Oct 2. I dont see any associated shock. If we need to set a start time for the sheath region, I would set at about 14:15 on Sept 30.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-10-01T06:27Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	16.20	----	2021-09-28T12:00Z	50.25	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-10-01T05:18Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	15.05	----	2021-09-28T12:00Z	50.25	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-30T22:00Z	7.75	----	2021-09-28T13:29Z	48.77	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-01T10:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	20.25	----	2021-09-28T16:45Z	45.50	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-01T01:29Z (-10.1h, +7.57h)	11.23	87.5	2021-09-28T18:27Z	43.80	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-10-01T00:27Z	10.20	----	2021-09-28T22:00Z	40.25	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-09-30T15:00Z	0.75	----	2021-09-29T04:38Z	33.62	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-10-01T09:00Z	18.75	90.0	2021-09-29T06:10Z	32.08	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-10-01T02:46Z	12.52	88.75	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.2	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-09-26T12:36:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The CME appears wider in STEREO A images than in SOHO images. The source of this CME is an eruption associated with a C1.6 class flare that peaked at 11:24Z from AR12871. The eruption started around 11:20Z and exhibited potential deflection within the field of view as well as opening field lines in the SW of SDO/AIA 171.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-09-30T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-09-26T20:17Z	81.72	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-30T06:00Z	----	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T23:00Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: CME SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and SW in COR2A. Source: 2.8 class flare in AR 2871 with location S22E28 and eruption seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 extending from AR 2871 NE and SW, with dimming and post-eruptive archades. The CME arrival at L1 is denoted by the increase in magnetic field (B total increase to above 10nT, magnetic field rotation (Bz stayed mostly positive, a clear flux rope is observed) and decrease in ion temperature.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-09-27T15:00Z	16.00	----	2021-09-23T20:37Z	74.38	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 2.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-26T23:01Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	0.02	----	2021-09-24T12:00Z	59.00	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-26T09:10Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-13.83	----	2021-09-24T12:00Z	59.00	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-26T14:00Z	-9.00	----	2021-09-24T16:00Z	55.00	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-26T23:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	0.50	----	2021-09-24T16:37Z	54.38	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 2.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-27T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	1.00	60.0	2021-09-25T02:35Z	44.42	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 7.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-09-26T18:50Z (-3.5h, +4.5h)	-4.17	----	2021-09-25T06:01Z	40.98	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-26T21:38Z	-1.37	60.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 3.75	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-09-22T07:53:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME only seen COR2A in SW. Possible source: filament eruption at ~S25W12 seen in AIA 304 ~2021-09-22T05:00Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive loops(AIA 193 and EUVIA 195). Originally logged in CME Scoreboard with observed time of 2021-09-22T05:0Z, changed to reflect DONKI entry time 2021-09-22T07:53Z.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-09-26T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-09-23T00:21Z	89.65	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 2.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-26T12:00Z	----	10.0	2021-09-23T15:23Z	68.62	Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-09-26T12:47Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-09-24T12:00Z	48.78	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-25T14:47Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-09-24T12:00Z	26.78	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-26T08:23Z	----	10.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 3.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-09-18T14:53:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faintly visible in the SSW in STEREO A COR2 and in the SSE in SOHO LASCO/C2. Associated with a filament eruption centered near S40E30, visible in SDO AIA 193/304 beginning 2021-09-18T13:45Z. Originally logged in CME Scoreboard with observed time of 2021-09-18T15:24Z, changed to reflect DONKI entry time 2021-09-18T14:53Z.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-09-21T14:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)	----	70.0	2021-09-19T00:26Z	61.57	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-09-21T14:00Z	----	70.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T01:29Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center. It starts around 03:54Z and is visible in SDO AIA 193 as dimming, SDO AIA 171 as moving/opening field lines, and SDO AIA 304 as a filament eruption. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: This IPS signature exhibits a notable change in B-field fluctuations (a jump from 4 to 7 nT in B_tot) and an increase in density from 5 to 12 cm^-3. Field rotations are subsequently observed with corresponding drops in temperature, suggesting the passage of one or more flux ropes. This signature later exhibits a southward B_z component with a peak magnitude of 13 nT.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-09-16T22:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-2.98	----	2021-09-13T21:55Z	75.57	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 2.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-18T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	41.52	35.0	2021-09-14T13:51Z	59.63	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-17T09:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	7.52	60.0	2021-09-14T15:21Z	58.13	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-09-17T01:35Z (-1.3h, +0.6h)	0.10	15.0	2021-09-14T23:46Z	49.72	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Mary Aronne (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-17T06:53Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	5.40	----	2021-09-15T07:00Z	42.48	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-16T14:56Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-10.55	----	2021-09-15T07:10Z	42.32	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-17T08:19Z	6.83	36.6667	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.25	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T01:32Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The observed CME starts to faintly emerge from the SE quadrant of SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2021-09-05T21:36Z, after which a halo feature becomes visible towards the south starting around 2021-09-05T23:36Z. May be associated with the combined eruptions from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z (associated with a B7.9 flare) and from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z (associated with a B7.0 flare). (CME activity ID: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001). CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A slight compression in magnetic field is detected starting at 2021-09-10T01:32Z and is subsequently followed by ICME features (notable increases in B-field values and large-scale B-field rotations).

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-09-09T01:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-23.95	----	2021-09-06T19:48Z	77.73	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-08T19:17Z	-30.25	----	2021-09-07T06:00Z	67.53	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-09-10T05:00Z	3.47	20.0	2021-09-07T08:35Z	64.95	Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-09-09T06:21Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-19.18	----	2021-09-07T12:20Z	61.20	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-08T22:41Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-26.85	----	2021-09-07T12:30Z	61.03	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-10T03:30Z (-24.0h, +24.0h)	1.97	15.0	2021-09-07T15:25Z	58.12	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-09T12:06Z (-17.3h, +20.5h)	-13.43	77.0	2021-09-08T01:52Z	47.67	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-09T10:04Z	-15.47	37.3333	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.2	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-09-04T23:53:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The start time of the CME is possibly earlier than indicated (updated from original time of 2021-09-05T01:09Z). There was missing data in COR2A before the indicated start time. The eruption was associated with a B4.5 flare that started at 2021-09-04T21:06Z and peaked at 2021-09-04T21:33Z. There was EUV wave signature associated with the eruption and visible in SDO/AIA 193. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: No discernable arrival signature was observed for this CME in the avilable data.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-09-09T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-09-05T16:05Z	91.92	Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-09T21:00Z	----	20.0	2021-09-07T08:27Z	60.55	Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-09-09T16:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	----	40.0	2021-09-07T08:38Z	55.87	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-09T06:15Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-09-07T12:00Z	42.25	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-08T07:21Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-09-07T12:10Z	19.18	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-09T07:49Z	----	30.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-08-28T07:00:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-03T06:19Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source is a M4.7 class flare peaking at 2021-08-28T06:11Z from active region 12860 located at S28E00 at the time of the eruption. This eruption is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO/AIA wavelengths. An EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211 starting around 2021-08-28T06:00Z, propagating northward, followed by a post-eruptive arcade starting around 2021-08-28T07:20Z. A dimming region is visible above the brightening active region during the EUV wave. Some plasma material is also visible lifting off during this eruption shortly after the flare peaks. Arrival characterized by slow magnetic field amplitude rise (reaching only 6.5 nT), accompanied by density/temperature rise, followed by field component rotation, density/tempurature drop, and speed rise. Followed by a SSBC at 2021-09-03T12:12Z, which obscures the later part of the ICME arrival signature.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-09-01T00:00Z	-54.32	----	2021-08-28T16:00Z	134.32	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Mary Aronne (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-02T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-30.32	----	2021-08-28T17:43Z	132.60	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-01T14:35Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-39.73	----	2021-08-29T07:20Z	118.98	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-31T14:54Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-63.42	----	2021-08-29T07:30Z	118.82	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-09-01T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-36.32	----	2021-08-30T02:54Z	99.42	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-09-01T01:00Z (-8.0h, +12.0h)	-53.32	60.0	2021-08-30T13:30Z	88.82	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-09-02T10:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-20.32	40.0	2021-09-01T07:38Z	46.68	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-09-01T11:47Z	-42.53	50.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.25	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-08-27T00:24:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME seen SE in C2 and later in the W in COR2A, front is too faint to be seen in C3. Source is an eruption in AR 2860 seen at 2021-08-26T23:30Z in AIA 193 (followed by a filament eruption seen in AIA 304).

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-08-31T05:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-08-28T00:38Z	76.87	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-31T04:59Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-08-29T07:00Z	45.98	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-30T07:22Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-08-29T07:10Z	24.20	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-30T21:57Z	----	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-08-26T18:53:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-08-29T10:30Z (-7.5h, +7.5h)	----	----	2021-08-27T06:45Z	51.75	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0 Dst min. in nT: -100	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-08-30T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	70.0	2021-08-27T09:03Z	73.95	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Mary Aronne (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-29T20:00Z	----	----	2021-08-27T16:00Z	52.00	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-29T18:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-08-27T19:57Z	46.90	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-29T16:11Z	----	----	2021-08-27T20:00Z	44.18	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-08-29T13:20Z (-13.83h, +16.63h)	----	95.0	2021-08-27T22:54Z	38.43	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-29T22:58Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-08-28T07:00Z	39.97	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-29T18:43Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	----	----	2021-08-28T07:10Z	35.55	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-29T23:00Z	----	----	2021-08-28T16:00Z	31.00	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Mary Aronne (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-29T19:50Z	----	82.5	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.6 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T11:42Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Faint CME seen in LASCO only. Source is a significant eruption from AR 2859 preceded by a B8.8 flare peaking at 2021-08-24T12:16Z. Dark material can be seen moving off the disk in SDO AIA 304 and 193 starting after 2021-08-24T12:03Z and a darkening with an EIT wave can be seen in EUVIA 195 starting after 2021-08-24T12:05Z. Arrival note: There is an increase of B total to over 16 nT, with a period of negative Bz reaching -13nT. There is no increase in solar wind speed at DSCOVR.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-08-28T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	15.30	----	2021-08-26T15:57Z	19.75	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-27T22:00Z	10.30	----	2021-08-27T06:50Z	4.87	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-08-28T05:13Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	17.52	----	2021-08-27T07:00Z	4.70	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-27T16:34Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	4.87	----	2021-08-27T07:10Z	4.53	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-27T23:39Z (-3.0h, +3.0h)	11.95	68.75	2021-08-27T10:04Z	1.63	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-27T23:41Z	11.98	68.75	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-08-23T06:36:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T00:25Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The CME is a partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is in the NW of STA COR2A. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center seen at 02:00Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. The L1 arrival signature seen by DSCOVR is characterized by a simultaneous jump in SW density, magnetic field and speed (from 360 to 420 km/s), as well as rotation of magnetic field components.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-08-26T20:25Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-4.00	----	2021-08-23T19:52Z	76.55	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Mary Aronne (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-27T03:27Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	3.03	----	2021-08-24T07:00Z	65.42	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-26T11:13Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-13.20	----	2021-08-24T07:10Z	65.25	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-27T09:00Z	8.58	----	2021-08-24T07:12Z	65.22	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-08-26T20:13Z (-3.0h, +3.0h)	-4.20	100.0	2021-08-24T09:00Z	63.42	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-27T23:00Z	22.58	----	2021-08-25T00:00Z	48.42	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-26T03:23Z	-21.03	----	2021-08-25T09:16Z	39.15	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-08-27T12:15Z	11.83	----	2021-08-25T09:18Z	39.12	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-08-27T08:00Z	7.58	----	2021-08-25T21:12Z	27.22	----	Other (SIDC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-26T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	-6.42	----	2021-08-26T05:26Z	18.98	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-08-27T00:53Z	0.47	100.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-07-29T00:24:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-02T09:03Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Partial halo SE in SOHO LASCO/C2, W in STEREO A COR2, both very faint. Associated with a filament eruption centered at S20W10 (near AR 12849), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-28T22:01Z. From Lan: There seems to be a CME encounter at about 9:10 19:00 UT on Aug 2, characterized by increased magnetic field strength, some magnetic field rotations (not smooth though), and low proton temperature. The quiet magnetic field on Aug 3 in the region after the CME might be due to the stretching of field lines.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-31T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-35.05	20.0	2021-07-29T12:39Z	92.40	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-02T11:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	2.45	----	2021-07-29T14:10Z	90.88	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-08-02T08:13Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-0.83	----	2021-07-30T07:00Z	74.05	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-01T08:30Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)	-24.55	----	2021-07-30T07:00Z	74.05	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-08-01T18:33Z	-14.50	20.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-07-27T03:24:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source is an eruption from AR 2849 (~S15E25) in AIA 193, AIA 304, and EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-07-27T01:51Z, with darkening and bright post-eruptive arcades. It is associated with the long duration B1.9 class flare peaking at 2021-07-27T02:13Z

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-30T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-27T18:50Z	66.17	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-30T22:27Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-28T07:00Z	63.45	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-30T07:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-28T07:00Z	48.60	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-30T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	----	50.0	2021-07-28T14:54Z	45.10	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-30T14:21Z (-10.5h, +10.5h)	----	----	2021-07-28T20:25Z	41.93	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-30T13:52Z	----	50.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-07-26T16:48:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo to the southwest in SOHO LASCO/C2, to the west in COR2A. Associated with an eruption from AR 12847 (near S30E00), visible in SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-07-26T14:57Z.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-29T15:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-26T19:38Z	67.65	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-29T11:38Z	----	----	2021-07-26T21:20Z	62.30	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-07-29T20:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-27T07:00Z	61.55	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-29T16:41Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-27T07:00Z	57.68	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-28T17:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)	----	75.0	2021-07-27T12:53Z	28.12	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-29T23:17Z (-7.8h, +9.3h)	----	----	2021-07-28T05:29Z	41.80	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-29T13:24Z	----	75.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-07-24T00:36:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible to the east in SOHO LASCO/C2 and C3; halo in STEREO A COR2. Associated with eruption from AR 12849 (S18E47), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-23T23:42Z, and associated with C4.3 flare beginning 2021-07-23T23:54Z. From Lan Jian: no clear features of iCME arrival found on 07-26 to 07-28 (stream interface seen at ~2021-07-28T04:50Z).

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-27T00:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-24T12:00Z	60.72	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-27T05:09Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-24T12:00Z	65.15	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-27T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-24T14:05Z	65.92	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-26T23:59Z	----	50.0	2021-07-24T16:49Z	55.17	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0 Dst min. in nT: -34 Dst min. time: 2021-07-27T10:00Z	Anemomilos	WKent Tobiska (SET SWD)	Detail
2021-07-26T20:38Z (-0.6h, +0.6h)	----	----	2021-07-24T22:02Z	46.60	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-29T12:00Z	----	----	2021-07-26T05:50Z	78.17	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-07-27T11:44Z	----	50.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-07-22T14:00:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-25T18:50Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the west in SOHO LASCO/C2, STEREO A COR2. May be associated with an eruption from AR 12848 (N20E08), visible in SDO AIA 304/193/171 beginning 2021-07-22T12:10Z, followed by EUV wave indicating a more southwestward ejection. Arrival indicated by weak but sudden increase in field amplitude, accompanied by speed increase and field component rotation. Preceded by brief pileup and temperature increase. Indicates a far flank arrival with flux rope only. This is a weak CME arrival, perhaps combined with a weak HSS arrival, with no candidate CH other than the patchy equatorial bit around W50.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-26T13:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	18.87	----	2021-07-24T12:00Z	30.83	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-25T19:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	0.75	----	2021-07-24T12:00Z	30.83	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-26T12:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	17.67	----	2021-07-24T15:18Z	27.53	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-26T07:15Z	12.42	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-07-20T16:48:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-25T06:22Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Eruption associated with a B5.4 flare from AR2846. Arrival is a very weak signature, no real shock, only a gentle rise in Btotal accompanied by Bx-Bz field rotation. Indicates a far flank arrival with flux rope only.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-23T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-37.37	----	2021-07-21T18:30Z	83.87	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-22T21:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-57.18	----	2021-07-22T12:00Z	66.37	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-23T09:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-44.78	----	2021-07-22T12:00Z	66.37	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-23T07:55Z	-46.45	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-07-13T04:24:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in SE of SOHO LASCO/C2 beginning 2021-07-13T04:24Z and in SW of STEREO A COR2 beginning 2021-07-13T09:53Z. May be associated with EUV wave and dimming just NW of AR 12841 (near S10E30) visible in SDO AIA 171 beginning 2021-07-13T01:39Z.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-16T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-13T17:26Z	67.57	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-16T13:00Z	----	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-07-10T13:36:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-14T10:00Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: May be associated with a filament eruption near S30E25, faintly visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2021-07-10T09:21Z and in STEREO A EUVI 304 between 2021-07-10T08:15Z and 2021-07-10T10:15Z.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-14T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-4.00	----	2021-07-10T18:32Z	87.47	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-14T12:28Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	2.47	----	2021-07-12T00:00Z	58.00	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-13T18:57Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-15.05	----	2021-07-12T00:00Z	58.00	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-14T04:28Z	-5.53	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-06-29T10:53:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption and subsequent EUV wave observed from the unnumbered active region centered near N20E05 on the Earth-facing disk starting around 2021-06-29T05:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: There was no arrival detected by DSCOVR/ACE data.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-03T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-06-29T19:16Z	94.73	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-02T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	----	----	2021-06-30T06:35Z	59.42	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-07-03T08:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	----	70.0	2021-06-30T07:00Z	73.00	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-07-03T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	----	20.0	2021-06-30T09:28Z	74.53	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-03T17:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-01T00:00Z	65.93	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-02T18:46Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	----	----	2021-07-01T00:00Z	42.77	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-07-03T07:27Z	----	45.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.25	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-06-27T02:00:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-01T02:30Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME observed leaving the western hemisphere, evidenced initially by coronal hole dimming on SDO AIA193. Analysis suggests a possible Earth-directed component, observed from around 27/0200Z quite clearly on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A COR2. Note from T. Nieves-Chincilla and L. Jian on CME arrival signature at L1: a clear flux rope on 07-01 from ~2:30 to ~14:15 with North polarity and some erosion at the front. This flux rope is embedded within the fast wind part of a CIR.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-07-01T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	17.50	15.0	2021-06-28T12:21Z	62.15	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-07-01T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	9.50	30.0	2021-06-28T12:35Z	61.92	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-07-01T16:00Z	13.50	22.5	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-06-15T04:24:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-20T11:21Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The arrival for this CME is very uncertain. There are weak signatures of ICMEs around this time, but it looks like it could be more than one.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-06-20T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-11.35	30.0	2021-06-16T18:20Z	89.02	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-06-19T23:00Z	-12.35	50.0	2021-06-19T00:15Z	35.10	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-06-19T23:30Z	-11.85	40.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-02T12:20Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: The EUV wave seen in SDO 193 is very wide and directed to the center disk. The CME is associated with a C9.4 class flare from AR 2824. The CME was first only visible in STA COR2A at 23:23Z, but since the original CME entry the C2 and C3 frames have come in and the CME is first seen in C2 at 23:12Z. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is embedded within a CIR. From Lan Jian: "The parameter changes at the shock soon after 12 UT on June 2 are more than what is expected for a SIR shock, and there are some field rotations after that" possibly indicative of a "CIR+ICME event."

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-31T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-47.33	15.0	2021-05-29T12:34Z	95.77	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-06-01T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-36.33	30.0	2021-05-29T12:45Z	95.58	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-06-01T06:00Z	-30.33	----	2021-05-29T14:55Z	93.42	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Hayley Austin (GSFC)	Detail
2021-05-31T08:26Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-51.90	----	2021-05-29T18:00Z	90.33	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-31T17:32Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-42.80	----	2021-05-29T18:15Z	90.08	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-31T18:35Z	-41.75	22.5	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Associated with eruption from AR 2824 (N21E04) at 2021-05-23T17:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304. The eruption's EUV signature shows material deflected westward. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-26T07:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-21.58	----	2021-05-24T20:17Z	56.92	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T12:30Z (-3.1h, +4.8h)	-16.70	54.0	2021-05-25T18:13Z	34.98	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T14:10Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-15.03	----	2021-05-25T22:00Z	31.20	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-26T15:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-13.80	----	2021-05-25T22:00Z	31.20	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-26T12:25Z	-16.78	54.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E7) at 11:03Z associated with an M1.1 flare peaked at 11:26Z. A large amount of material moving quickly to the west of the AR in AIA 193/304/171 after the eruption. This CME appears faster than the 2021-05-23T09:53Z CME, and caught up to it in the LASCO C2 imagery, and then appeared as one CME in the C3 imagery. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-26T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-26.20	70.0	2021-05-23T15:09Z	86.05	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T03:00Z	-50.20	----	2021-05-23T16:30Z	84.70	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0 Dst min. in nT: -46 Dst min. time: 2021-05-25T13:00Z	Anemomilos	WKent Tobiska (SET SWD)	Detail
2021-05-26T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-15.20	----	2021-05-23T19:15Z	81.95	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T23:58Z	-29.23	----	2021-05-24T15:10Z	62.03	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-05-26T01:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-28.02	----	2021-05-24T16:40Z	60.53	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-26T07:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-21.88	----	2021-05-24T16:45Z	60.45	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-26T07:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-21.58	----	2021-05-24T20:17Z	56.92	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T12:30Z (-3.1h, +4.8h)	-16.70	54.0	2021-05-25T18:13Z	34.98	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T06:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h)	-23.20	50.0	2021-05-25T21:45Z	31.45	Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T03:23Z	-25.82	58.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 4.71429	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-26T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-15.20	----	2021-05-23T19:15Z	81.95	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T09:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-19.65	----	2021-05-24T16:25Z	60.78	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-26T08:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-20.65	----	2021-05-24T16:35Z	60.62	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-26T01:36Z	-27.60	----	2021-05-24T18:00Z	59.20	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-05-26T07:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-21.58	----	2021-05-24T20:17Z	56.92	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T12:30Z (-3.1h, +4.8h)	-16.70	54.0	2021-05-25T18:13Z	34.98	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T08:58Z	-20.23	54.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: The source of this CME is a large eruption from AR 2824 (N20E15) at 21:31Z, visible in SDO AIA imagery as well as STA EUVI 195. This eruption is associated with an M1.4 flare. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-25T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-22.62	70.0	2021-05-23T06:51Z	76.77	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-15.62	----	2021-05-23T17:02Z	66.58	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T14:52Z	-20.75	----	2021-05-24T15:00Z	44.62	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-05-25T21:04Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-14.55	----	2021-05-24T16:20Z	43.28	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-25T20:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-15.02	----	2021-05-24T16:25Z	43.20	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-25T14:04Z (-4.8h, +8.3h)	-21.55	98.0	2021-05-24T23:09Z	36.47	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T06:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h)	-5.62	80.0	2021-05-25T21:40Z	13.95	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T19:05Z	-16.53	82.6667	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.4 - 5.8	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Ejected material is seen in SDO AIA 193 and 304 after 05-22T15:21Z mostly to the West from AR 2824. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-26T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-9.62	70.0	2021-05-22T21:26Z	86.18	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-15.62	----	2021-05-23T17:02Z	66.58	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T19:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-16.02	----	2021-05-24T16:00Z	43.62	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-25T15:52Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-19.75	----	2021-05-24T16:15Z	43.37	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-25T14:04Z (-4.8h, +8.3h)	-21.55	98.0	2021-05-24T23:09Z	36.47	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T19:06Z	-16.52	84.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.66667	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Source is eruption from AR 2824 at 06:15Z, with dimming towards the S of the AR. Material moving after 06:45Z to the W from AR. In STA Cor2 it is seen as two CMEs, NW one at 08:23 and SW one at 09:38 (the later might be associated with a C-class flare at 06:45Z). The CMEs are seen as one in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3. CME ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-26T23:27Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	11.83	40.0	2021-05-22T15:54Z	91.72	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T21:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-14.62	----	2021-05-22T23:59Z	83.63	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-15.62	----	2021-05-23T17:02Z	66.58	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC)	Detail
2021-05-25T17:45Z	-17.87	----	2021-05-23T17:29Z	66.13	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T21:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-14.22	----	2021-05-24T07:00Z	52.62	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-25T11:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-24.25	----	2021-05-24T07:15Z	52.37	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-25T14:04Z (-4.8h, +8.3h)	-21.55	98.0	2021-05-24T23:09Z	36.47	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-26T00:00Z (-3.0h, +9.0h)	-11.62	60.0	2021-05-25T21:30Z	14.12	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-05-25T22:07Z	-13.50	66.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.66667	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-19T01:16Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The start time of this CME may be off (earlier) due to a data gap in STEREO-A data. The source of this CME is a B4.9 class flare from Active Region 12823 starting at 2021-05-14T00:37Z, peaking at 2021-05-14T01:04Z, ending at 2021-05-14T01:31Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA wavelengths 193, 171, and 94. The eruption appears as a brightening from the flare in the center of the active region with dimming occurring to the south of the active region. There is a coronal hole just south of this active region that could have deflected the CME more equatorward. The CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. There are no visible CME features in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 imagery. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is associated with a shock observed at L1 at 2021-05-19T01:16Z. From Lan Jian, "There seems to be a shock in early 2021-05-19, which could be related to a glimpse of the simulated CME."

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-18T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-13.27	----	2021-05-14T21:45Z	99.52	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-18T13:00Z	-12.27	80.0	2021-05-14T23:54Z	97.37	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-05-17T12:00Z	-37.27	----	2021-05-15T03:35Z	93.68	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-05-18T07:07Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-18.15	----	2021-05-15T23:30Z	73.77	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-17T16:01Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-33.25	----	2021-05-15T23:45Z	73.52	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-18T02:25Z	-22.85	80.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.33333	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-16T18:36Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source of this CME is an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting at 2021-05-13T15:42Z north from Active Region 12822. The eruption features a broad dimming region north of the active region. A post-eruption arcades are visible in SDO/AIA 193/171; opening field lines are seen in STA EUVI 195 as well. This eruption possibly has two B-class flares associated with it (B1.1 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T16:21Z and B1.2 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T18:15Z). The resulting CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. It appears as a faint partial-halo to the North of SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A flux rope is visible around 2021-05-16T18:36Z and may correspond to the flank of the CME. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla, "This is a kind of Flux rope. The ICME signatures are not so clear, there is no shock and sheath...ICME identification is based on remote sensing expectations. It may be the flank of a streamer blow out or blob."

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-18T05:00Z	34.40	----	2021-05-14T03:34Z	63.03	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-16T21:49Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	3.22	----	2021-05-14T21:18Z	45.30	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Anna Chulaki (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-16T19:25Z	0.82	----	2021-05-14T23:00Z	43.60	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-05-17T12:00Z	17.40	----	2021-05-15T03:30Z	39.10	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-05-18T02:15Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	31.65	80.0	2021-05-15T12:47Z	29.82	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-16T18:47Z (-1.83h, +2.4h)	0.18	16.0	2021-05-15T14:20Z	28.27	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Carina Alden (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-17T08:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	13.63	----	2021-05-15T23:00Z	19.60	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-17T00:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	6.02	----	2021-05-15T23:15Z	19.35	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-17T08:00Z	13.40	48.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T05:48Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: CME associated with a filament eruption starting 2021-05-09T10:06Z visible in the disk center in SDO AIA 193/304 (and in the W STA EUVI 195). Clear arrival signature at L1 with IPS at 2021-05-12T05:48Z marked by sudden increase in B total to above 23 nT, a sudden jump in solar wind speed from 310 km/s to 450-490 km/s and increases in solar wind density and temperature; Bz reached negative values of around -19 nT for a brief time.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-05-12T03:34Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-2.23	----	2021-05-09T18:58Z	58.83	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC)	Detail
2021-05-12T17:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)	11.20	----	2021-05-10T01:15Z	52.55	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-05-12T19:45Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	13.95	70.0	2021-05-10T07:06Z	46.70	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-12T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	12.20	----	2021-05-10T13:37Z	40.18	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - --	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-05-13T06:00Z	24.20	----	2021-05-10T14:00Z	39.80	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-12T20:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	14.63	----	2021-05-10T23:00Z	30.80	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-12T14:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	8.52	----	2021-05-10T23:15Z	30.55	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-05-12T04:44Z (-5.28h, +6.3h)	-1.07	100.0	2021-05-11T13:16Z	16.53	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-12T15:58Z	10.17	85.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.2	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-04-26T19:39:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-01T12:50Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME observed in W of STEREO A COR2 beginning 2021-04-26T19:39Z, faintly visible as a partial halo in the south of SOHO LASCO/C3 by 2021-04-2706:18Z. Associated with a large filament eruption from south Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 304 between 2021-04-26T15:00-20:00Z (with biggest lift around 2021-04-26T18:00Z).

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-04-30T23:00Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)	-13.83	10.0	2021-04-27T12:49Z	96.02	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-04-30T20:40Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-16.17	----	2021-04-27T20:02Z	88.80	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-05-01T02:00Z	-10.83	50.0	2021-04-28T05:20Z	79.50	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-04-30T23:13Z	-13.62	30.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T22:24Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Associated with an eruption visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-04-22T04:21Z, and associated with C3.8 flare beginning at 2021-04-22T04:10 and peaking at 2021-04-22T04:35Z. There is some northeastern deflection apparent in the available EUV imagery. Arrival signaled by sudden rise in Btotal from 5 to 8 nT at 2021-04-2422:24Z, followed shortly by an increase in Btotal to above 10 nT, accompanied by jumps in velocity, density, and temperature as measured by DSCOVR.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-04-25T00:00Z	1.60	----	2021-04-22T16:00Z	54.40	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-04-24T17:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-5.00	----	2021-04-22T16:16Z	54.13	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-04-24T20:16Z	-2.13	----	2021-04-22T19:00Z	51.40	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-04-25T00:30Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	2.10	80.0	2021-04-22T23:15Z	47.15	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-04-24T19:25Z (-11.1h, +14.9h)	-2.98	----	2021-04-23T02:14Z	44.17	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-04-25T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	25.10	80.0	2021-04-23T06:59Z	39.42	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-04-24T18:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-3.90	----	2021-04-23T07:00Z	39.40	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-04-25T00:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	2.32	----	2021-04-23T07:15Z	39.15	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-04-25T01:59Z	3.58	----	2021-04-23T08:26Z	37.97	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-04-24T18:46Z	-3.63	----	2021-04-23T08:26Z	37.97	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-04-25T00:06Z	1.70	80.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.4	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-04-20T00:12:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-22T08:50Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: A CME was detected in the east of SOHO C2 coronagraph starting at 2021-04-20T00:12Z. The CME is also visible in SOHO C3 and STEREO A COR2A. The source of the CME was an eruption from AR2816 (S24E23) around 2021-04-19T23:20Z. The eruption was associated with an M1.1 flare starting at 2021-04-19T23:19Z and peaked at 2021-04-19T23:42Z. The CME arrival was predicted to be a glancing blow and a weak signature at L1 by DSCOVR is seen around 04-22T08:50Z. At this time, a magnetic field rotation is visible while the temperature remains low.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-04-22T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	13.17	----	2021-04-20T15:44Z	41.10	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-04-22T20:03Z	11.22	----	2021-04-20T22:00Z	34.83	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-04-23T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	27.17	5.0	2021-04-21T06:38Z	26.20	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-04-23T02:01Z	17.18	5.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 4.33333	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-04-10T06:53:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-15T03:28Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: The source for this CME was unclear. The latitude and longitude were adjusted for this CME based on SWPC_CAT analysis with 2 coronagraphs (SOHO/STA). A flux rope type signature was visible around 04-15T03:28 by DSCOVR at L1.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-04-15T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	14.53	----	2021-04-12T21:17Z	54.18	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-04-15T09:00Z	5.53	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail
2021-04-15T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-3.47	----	2021-04-15T11:00Z	-7.53	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail

CME: 2021-03-21T23:24:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-26T21:35Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME signature is not clear and it may be combined with a stream interaction region. Arrival time was difficult to select. We discussed it with GSFC ICME experts for clarification. From Dr. Lan Jian: There is a magnetic obstacle from Mar 26 21:35 to Mar 27 14:40, characterized by some non-smooth field rotations, increased B, declining speed, and low Tp. I selected the boundaries based on the sharp changes of total B, but there are boundary layers at its two sides. After it, there is a stream interaction region, in which the fast wind speed is not that fast (less than 450 km/s), and the stream interface is at 22:48 on Mar 27.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-03-26T20:31Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-1.07	75.0	2021-03-22T12:39Z	104.93	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Other (SIDC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-03-26T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-13.58	----	2021-03-22T22:21Z	95.23	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-03-26T14:15Z	-7.33	75.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-03-20T00:48:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-24T19:18Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This arrival was attributed earlier to the signature seen at L1 around 2021-03-24T04:57Z. After a discussion with two ICME experts, it was decided that the second and stronger structure detected at L1 around 2021-03-24T19:18Z was the actual CME arrival. The first signature did not decrease in temperature while the second structure display clear signatures of a flux rope in the magnetic field, temperature and velocity.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-03-23T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-31.30	----	2021-03-20T13:28Z	101.83	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC)	Detail
2021-03-23T06:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)	-37.30	40.0	2021-03-20T14:50Z	100.47	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-03-22T20:00Z	-47.30	----	2021-03-21T00:33Z	90.75	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)	RWC Jeju (KSWC)	Detail
2021-03-23T04:00Z	-39.30	----	2021-03-21T05:05Z	86.22	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-03-23T13:53Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	-29.42	----	2021-03-21T07:00Z	84.30	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-03-23T02:49Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-40.48	----	2021-03-21T07:10Z	84.13	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-03-23T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-20.30	50.0	2021-03-22T12:09Z	55.15	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-03-23T12:00Z	-31.30	----	2021-03-22T20:00Z	47.30	----	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Robert Loper (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-03-23T08:42Z	-34.60	45.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-02-26T22:00:00-CME-001

This CME was not detected at Earth!

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-02-27T20:00Z	----	----	2021-02-26T22:00Z	22.00	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0 Dst min. in nT: -88 Dst min. time: 2021-02-28T10:00Z	Anemomilos	WKent Tobiska (SET SWD)	Detail
2021-02-27T20:00Z	----	----	---	---	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-02-20T11:00:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-02-23T05:00Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: From Dr. Lan Jian: In the declining part of the fast wind stream, there seem to be two flux ropes: one during Feb 23 05UT Feb 24 03UT, and the other one from Feb 24 04UT to present.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-02-23T14:00Z	9.00	----	2021-02-21T01:33Z	51.45	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-02-22T16:00Z	-13.00	40.0	2021-02-21T02:53Z	50.12	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-02-23T12:28Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)	7.47	75.0	2021-02-21T11:14Z	41.77	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0	Other (SIDC)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-02-23T00:07Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-4.88	----	2021-02-21T14:47Z	38.22	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC)	Detail
2021-02-22T12:42Z	-16.30	----	2021-02-22T11:57Z	17.05	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-02-22T15:29Z	-13.52	----	2021-02-22T12:02Z	16.97	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-02-23T06:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	1.00	50.0	2021-02-22T23:10Z	5.83	Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-02-22T14:12Z (-6.28h, +8.73h)	-14.80	100.0	2021-02-24T14:10Z	-33.17	Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0	Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Yaireska Collado (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-02-22T23:22Z	-5.63	66.25	---	---	Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 6.0	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is preceded by the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. An eruption signature is visible in SDO AIA 193/304/171, showing some dark filament material rising from approximately S40W15 beginning around 2021-01-02T09:00Z with rising material/opening field lines also visible beyond the western limb in the view of STA EUVI 195. This is followed by a clear liftoff of filamentary material in SDO AIA 304 at 10:45Z, and then significant darkening seen along the entire filament from ~S10 to S40 and W00 to W30 beginning around 11:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I dont see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-01-06T06:00Z	6.00	----	2021-01-02T20:00Z	76.00	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-01-05T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-10.00	----	2021-01-02T21:00Z	75.00	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-01-05T05:59Z	-18.02	----	2021-01-02T21:24Z	74.60	----	SARM	Marlon Nunez (UMA)	Detail
2021-01-05T20:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)	-4.00	80.0	2021-01-03T01:00Z	71.00	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)	Met Office (Met Office)	Detail
2021-01-05T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-8.00	65.0	2021-01-03T12:39Z	59.35	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-01-05T18:22Z	-5.63	----	2021-01-03T13:15Z	58.75	----	SPM	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-01-05T04:32Z	-19.47	----	2021-01-03T13:19Z	58.68	----	SPM2	Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS)	Detail
2021-01-05T21:00Z	-3.00	----	2021-01-04T05:49Z	42.18	Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)	Duty Forecaster (ASWFC)	Detail
2021-01-05T11:36Z	-12.40	----	2021-01-04T07:00Z	41.00	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-01-05T09:26Z	-14.57	----	2021-01-04T07:00Z	41.00	----	EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)	Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL)	Detail
2021-01-06T12:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)	12.00	70.0	2021-01-04T08:29Z	39.52	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)	Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC)	Detail
2021-01-05T20:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-3.50	----	2021-01-04T20:45Z	27.25	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-01-05T17:17Z	-6.72	71.6667	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.42857	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

CME: 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001

Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z

Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME precedes the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME. This CME is associated with a filament eruption observed south of the Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 193/304 (centered near S30W05 just below a small coronal hole structure) starting as early as 2021-01-01T19:00Z. The start time of this CME is chosen based on the visibility of a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2 seen to emerge starting at 2021-01-01T22:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I dont see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time	Difference (hrs)	Confidence (%)	Submitted On	Lead Time (hrs)	Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)	Method	Submitted By
2021-01-06T06:00Z	6.00	----	2021-01-02T20:00Z	76.00	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-01-05T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-10.00	----	2021-01-02T21:00Z	75.00	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-01-05T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)	-8.00	65.0	2021-01-03T12:39Z	59.35	Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0	Other (SIDC)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-01-05T20:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)	-3.50	----	2021-01-04T20:45Z	27.25	Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0	WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)	Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office)	Detail
2021-01-05T20:07Z	-3.88	65.0	---	---	Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.25	Average of all Methods	Auto Generated (CCMC)	Detail

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